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Where Are Those Speedy Cards? |
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Written by Phyro
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Monday, 18 October 2004 |
Tom's Hardware Guide has put up a new article on "Where Are Those Speedy Cards?". If we review cards and recommend them, we want to be sure that those cards are in fact available to be purchased in reasonable numbers in the market. After a few dozen readers wrote to us indicating the non-existence of nVidia's GeForce 6800 Ultra and ATI's X800 XT, we decided it was time to go shopping.
 Where Are Those Speedy Cards?
Our week-long research confirmed what our readers had already told us. High-end graphic cards, especially ATI's X800 XT Platinum Edition and nVidia's GeForce 6800 Ultra, are simply not available in a reasonable volume. Current supply appears to be not even close to enough to meet demand. We are talking here not about luxury-category products but mass-market ones (and also not placebo devices such as the GeForce Ultra Extreme which, according to one source, may not even have exceeded 100 built cards).
We certainly believe that ATI and nVidia were surprised by factors that caused a severe shortage of high-end graphic chips. On the one side, there are unforeseeable production problems. On the other, there is greater than expected demand, created by exciting new technology and enormous PR and marketing efforts.
However, we also believe that both companies are caught in a brutal competitive cycle and are starting to lose track of what is most important: the customer. It is simply impossible to sustain credibility if products are announced and heavily marketed, yet cannot be purchased even six months after the chips were advertised as "shipping in volume". It is not good enough for high-end graphic chips to first become available towards the middle of their life cycle.
Several manufacturers told us that they believe that these shortages always happen in this industry. But many believe that competition has reached an "unreal level" and is driving each firm to announce products as soon as they feel they can best the other, and not when the products are ready for mass production.
While it may be true that the company with the highest-performance chip is king of the hill, we also heard more than one industry source characterize the current competition as "insane". "You can't compete like that and stay alive. One of those two companies will be driven out of business," one source said. In a prior interview, industry analyst Jon Peddie from Jon Peddie Research mentioned that the graphic card market is large enough for both companies to survive. But neither ATI nor nVidia wants the other one to survive, he said.
So, there you have it. Is it a supply and demand problem, or overzealous marketing by two companies that seem to be fighting to the death? While it is true that traditionally, high-end graphics cards tend to trickle down into the mainstream, there are instances where, these days, products rarely make it to maturity before they are superceded by another paper launch. Users are often left anticipating what could have been, while the protagonists are left with yet one more speed crown, largely used to beat down their OEMs and partners.
There is no doubt in our minds that ATI and nVidia ultimately have to carry the responsibility for the shortage of their products. Demand for graphic cards over $400 was artificially stirred up to build the marketing base for entire product lines, without the ability to crank out a sufficient number of chips. Even if it is a legitimate PR and marketing strategy, we believe the interests of board builders as well as consumers have been set aside as a result.
It may very well be that there is no significant market share for graphic cards over $400, when compared to the total size of the graphic chip market. Despite this, we expect announced products to be available in reasonable volume. Until then, the field is left for the brave few who like to chase them down for the thrill of the hunt.
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